Key facts
- Scheffler favored at +310 odds after winning FedEx St. Jude by 8 strokes; leads playoff points
- BMW Championship at Bellerive Country Club, St. Louis; 50-golfer field; Thursday start at 10:03 a.m. ET
- Aberg, McIlroy, Schauffele tied at +1500 odds as secondary contenders
- Scheffler won no majors in 2026 but remains dominant in playoff events
- Computer model projects Fleetwood as value at +2200; flags Aberg as fade despite top odds
The event and field
The 2026 BMW Championship, the second event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, is scheduled to take place at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri, beginning Thursday at 10:03 a.m. ET. The field consists of 50 golfers who advanced from the first playoff event, the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Scheffler’s form and betting status
Scottie Scheffler won the FedEx St. Jude Championship by eight strokes and holds the points lead heading into the BMW Championship. According to CBS Sports, Scheffler is listed as the favorite at +310 odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Although Scheffler did not win any major championships in 2026, his dominant performance in the playoff opener established him as the top contender for the week.
Other top contenders
Ludvig Aberg, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schauffele are all listed at +1500 odds, placing them among the principal challengers to Scheffler. These three golfers trail the favorite but sit among the most prominent names in the field.
Analytical predictions
According to CBS Sports, a computer model built by DFS professional Mike McClure simulated the 2026 BMW Championship 10,000 times. The model flagged Ludvig Aberg as a surprising fade, noting that despite second-best odds at +1500, he barely cracks the top 10 in simulations. Aberg has recorded two consecutive top-10 finishes but had not finished better than tied-for-17th in his prior five events before the BMW Championship. The model highlighted that Aberg was winless through the 2026 season and had not finished better than a share of third place.
The same model identified Tommy Fleetwood as a value play at +2200 odds, projecting him as a strong contender for the title and a reliable top-5 pick. Fleetwood posted 13 top-25 finishes across his 17 events on the season, with eight top-10s and four top-5s. The model cited Fleetwood’s accuracy off the tee as a significant advantage, given the challenging rough conditions at Bellerive.
Recent track record
According to CBS Sports, the computer model has nailed 17 major championship outcomes entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters (its fifth consecutive Masters prediction), the 2025 PGA Championship, and the 2025 Open Championship.
Sources
Featured photo by Noah Rosenfield on Unsplash