New poll shows Hobbs with 13-point lead over Biggs in Arizona governor's race

Coverage spread: 3 sources — 3 unrated

Lean ratings via AllSides / Media Bias-Fact-Check. How this works.

Where they agree

A new Noble Predictive Insights poll shows Hobbs leading Biggs 48% to 35% among likely voters, a 13-point margin.
The poll surveyed 1,040 registered voters (923 likely voters) from Aug. 10-13, 2026, with a 3.2-point margin of error for likely voters.
Minor-party candidates Teri Ann Hourihan (No Labels) and Risa Lombardo (listed Green Party) polled at 1% and 2% respectively, with 12% undecided.
Pollsters attribute Hobbs’ gains to a summer ad blitz and note Biggs can now focus solely on Hobbs after his primary contest with David Schweikert.

Where they differ

AZFamily goes beyond the poll to fact-check Hobbs’ anti-tax ad against Biggs, highlighting her own past support for over $1 billion in tax increases.
FOX 10 Phoenix packages the poll story within a broader nightly roundup of unrelated crime and weather news, giving it less standalone depth.
12 News Phoenix offers only the top-line poll result with no additional context or analysis.
Only FOX 10 Phoenix notes the dispute over Risa Lombardo’s Green Party listing, since the party itself opposes her candidacy and instead backed write-in candidate Carlos Melendez.

A new Noble Predictive Insights poll shows Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs leading Republican challenger Andy Biggs 48% to 35% among likely Arizona voters, a 13-point margin, with the November 2026 general election still more than two months away.

What exactly did the poll find?

Noble Predictive Insights surveyed 1,040 registered Arizona voters, including 923 likely voters, from Aug. 10-13, 2026. Among likely voters, Hobbs took 48% to Biggs’ 35%. No Labels Party candidate Teri Ann Hourihan drew 1%, and Risa Lombardo, listed as the Green Party candidate, got 2%. About 12% remained undecided. The margin of error for likely-voter questions is plus or minus 3.2%.

There’s a wrinkle in the Green Party listing: although Lombardo appears as the party’s gubernatorial candidate in the poll and on the Arizona Secretary of State’s website, the Arizona Green Party says on its own site that it “actively opposes” her candidacy. The party instead endorsed a write-in candidate, Carlos Melendez, who placed second in the Green primary according to official Secretary of State results.

Why does Noble Predictive Insights say Hobbs has gained ground?

Pollsters point to a summer advertising campaign. Since May, Hobbs’ share of the vote among registered voters has risen five points while Biggs’ has dropped by the same amount, according to the polling firm’s release. Noble Predictive Insights also noted that Biggs, a former congressman, previously had attention split with fellow Republican David Schweikert but can now turn his focus fully to Hobbs, predicting the race will heat up.

What is the tax fight over consumption taxes about?

Alongside the poll numbers, Hobbs’ campaign has been running a 30-second ad attacking Biggs over his past support, in Congress and the state legislature, for replacing the state income tax with a broader consumption or sales tax. The ad warns that a Biggs governorship “will cost you big time.” Biggs has generally presented himself as opposed to tax increases, so the ad targets that specific past position.

AZFamily’s reporting points out that Hobbs has her own tax history that complicates the attack: about a decade ago, as a state legislator, she backed two proposals that would have raised more than $1 billion in new taxes for Arizonans, including a fuel tax increase. Asked whether this makes her attack on Biggs hypocritical, Hobbs said no, noting the fuel tax bill wasn’t hers and that she no longer supports it. As governor, she has since signed a $1.4 billion tax cut this year that mirrored a federal proposal from Donald Trump eliminating taxes on tips and overtime. The Biggs campaign responded by warning voters that a Hobbs–John Giles ticket would mean “more taxes and more money out of their pockets.” AZFamily also notes that any future governor would face a steep hurdle raising taxes, since it requires a two-thirds vote in both chambers of the Arizona legislature.

How are local outlets covering this differently?

FOX 10 Phoenix’s coverage sticks closely to the poll numbers and the pollster’s own explanation for the shift, and also folds the story into a broader nightly news roundup covering unrelated local crime and weather stories. 12 News Phoenix offers only the bare top-line result. AZFamily takes the story further, using the poll as a jumping-off point to scrutinize the substance of Hobbs’ anti-Biggs tax ad and hold her own legislative record up against it.

Why this matters going into November

With the general election set for Nov. 3, 2026, and the voter registration deadline Oct. 5, this poll offers an early read on a race that’s expected to intensify. The mention that Biggs can now stop dividing attention with a primary rival and focus on Hobbs signals that both campaigns are moving into a more direct, sustained confrontation over taxes, cost of living, and other issues in the weeks ahead.

Sources

Featured photo: Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0)

New poll shows Hobbs with 13-point lead over Biggs in Arizona governor’s race