Arizona to lose 30% of Colorado River water allocation under new federal plan

The federal government announced Friday that Arizona will cut its Colorado River water use by 760,000 acre-feet a year — roughly 30% of its allocation — over the next two years, as part of a broader 1.25 million acre-foot annual reduction among Lower Basin states. State officials say the deal, while painful, spares Arizona from a far harsher cut of up to 77% that had been floated earlier in negotiations.

What did the federal government actually decide?

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation released its 2027-2028 Operating Guidelines and Record of Decision on Friday, adopting a plan largely shaped by voluntary reductions proposed by the Lower Basin states — Arizona, California and Nevada. Combined, those three states will absorb 1.25 million acre-feet in cuts annually for the next two years. Arizona takes the largest hit: a 760,000 acre-foot reduction, described by different outlets as either a 30% or 31% cut to its share of the river. One acre-foot of water is roughly enough to supply two to three Arizona households for a year.

Why is Arizona taking the biggest cut?

Arizona’s Central Arizona Project (CAP), the canal system that delivers Colorado River water to Phoenix, Tucson and farmland in between, holds junior water rights on the river. That legal standing means CAP would normally be first in line to lose water when supplies run short — and it risked shouldering the entire multi-state reduction alone. Under the negotiated plan, California and Nevada agreed to take on some of the burden instead, easing what would otherwise have fallen entirely on Arizona. State officials also noted that some cuts will likely be spread to other cities and agricultural users along the river that share CAP’s same priority level, not just CAP itself.

Could it have been worse?

Yes — much worse, according to Arizona officials. Gov. Katie Hobbs said the deal “saved Arizona from forced federal cuts” and called an earlier federal proposal from January, which would have imposed a 77% cut to CAP’s water supply, “an unacceptable disaster.” Water resource attorney Cynthia Campbell said cities have been preparing for this level of shortage for a while and are largely ready to absorb it, meaning typical households won’t see water stop running from the tap, though rates could rise slightly and conservation messaging will likely intensify.

What happens after 2028?

The current plan only covers two years, and deeper cuts remain possible after that. The Bureau of Reclamation’s environmental review calls for guidelines to be reevaluated every two years, meaning the previously floated 77% cut is still on the table for years three through ten of the broader planning window. Whether Arizona avoids that depends on whether it and the other six Colorado River basin states — Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico in the Upper Basin, plus California and Nevada in the Lower Basin — can reach a longer-term agreement on dividing the river’s flows.

Where do Arizona and the Upper Basin disagree?

Governor Hobbs and state water officials argue the deal protects Upper Basin reservoirs at Lower Basin states’ expense and doesn’t deliver the water Arizona is legally entitled to. Hobbs said the Upper Basin’s “refusal to negotiate any reductions to their water usage imperils the stability of the Colorado River system.” Tom Buschatzke, director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources and the state’s lead Colorado River negotiator, said the framework for years three through ten “continues to be of concern,” though he credited the Interior Department for at least clarifying how decisions will be made beyond 2028. Negotiations between the basins have been deadlocked for roughly three years, and it isn’t clear whether more time will produce a compromise.

Why this matters beyond Arizona

The Colorado River supplies drinking water and irrigation for cities and farms across seven states and parts of Mexico, and reservoirs like Lake Mead and Lake Powell have been sitting at historically low, “precarious” levels amid prolonged drought and overuse. Collectively, Arizona, California and Nevada could face cuts of up to 3 million acre-feet through 2036 — roughly enough water to supply more than 25 million people annually. Phoenix has already begun tapping an emergency water bank to prepare for the reductions, and officials say how much more the region has to cut will hinge heavily on winter snowpack and rainfall feeding the river system this year.

Sources

• 12 News Phoenix — Phoenix taps emergency water bank amid severe Colorado River cuts · Feds announce final water-reduction plan for Arizona as lakes reach drastic levels
• FOX 10 Phoenix — Arizona hit with 30% Colorado River water cuts · Arizona faces 30% Colorado River water cut in new federal plan
• Arizona Mirror
• Arizona Capitol Times

Featured photo: Doc Searls from Santa Barbara, USA via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0)