Coverage spread: 2 sources — 2 unrated
Lean ratings via AllSides / Media Bias-Fact-Check. How this works.
Where they agree
- Phoenix is experiencing dry conditions with highs in the low triple digits before this pattern changes.
- Storm chances are expected to increase notably starting Thursday night into Friday.
- The shift is linked to a developing tropical system pulling moisture into Arizona.
Where they differ
- AZFamily gives specific numbers, including a 101-degree high, 20 percent high-country storm chance, and 40 percent Thursday/Friday rain odds, while FOX 10’s brief video summary offers no percentages.
- AZFamily extends its outlook through the holiday weekend with 20-30 percent rain chances and rising temperatures, a level of detail absent from FOX 10’s shorter clip description.
Phoenix is seeing a brief dry, hot stretch with highs around 100-101 degrees, but forecasters say rain chances will climb sharply by Thursday night into Friday as a developing tropical system in the Pacific pulls moisture into Arizona.
What’s the forecast for the next few days?
Conditions across the Valley are sunny and dry, with a high near 101 degrees expected. Statewide storm chances are low, with only about a 20 percent chance of monsoon rain in Arizona’s high country, including at the Grand Canyon. Drier air moving into the state is suppressing storms today and tomorrow, keeping the pattern hot and mostly clear through midweek.
Why are rain chances increasing later this week?
A tropical system is expected to form in the Pacific within the next 24 hours, and as it develops it’s forecast to draw moisture northeast into Arizona and the broader Southwest. That shift is expected to push rain chances in the Valley up to near 40 percent Thursday night and through the day Friday, a notable jump from the low storm odds seen earlier in the week.
What about the holiday weekend?
Slight storm chances are expected to continue into the long weekend, but forecasters caution there’s still real uncertainty about how much rain will fall and exactly when. Current outlooks put the chance of rain at roughly 20 to 30 percent from Saturday through Monday. Meteorologists say they’ll refine those numbers as they get a clearer read on how much tropical moisture actually reaches Arizona.
How hot will it stay?
Afternoon highs are expected to hold near 100 degrees from today through Saturday, then tick up a few degrees on Sunday and Monday, keeping the region in low-triple-digit territory even as rain chances rise.
Why this matters
Monsoon-season moisture swings like this are routine for Arizona, but the timing tied to a developing tropical system adds uncertainty for anyone with holiday weekend plans, from hikers and campers to outdoor events across the Valley and high country. Forecasters are still working out how much of the tropical moisture will actually reach Arizona and when the heaviest rain chances will hit.
Sources
Featured photo: Lightandtruth via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)