Coverage spread: 2 sources — 1 left · 1 center
Lean ratings via AllSides / Media Bias-Fact-Check. How this works.
Where they agree
- Polymarket and Kalshi both gave Francesca Hong about a 95% chance of winning the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, but David Crowley won by under half a percentage point.
- Both platforms built strong reputations after correctly forecasting every state in the 2024 presidential election, which boosted their mainstream media credibility.
- Kalshi’s leadership defended the Wisconsin miss by noting a 95% probability still allows for a real chance of the underdog winning.
- Kalshi is the largest U.S. prediction market and mention markets tied to spoken words have become a significant, controversial part of its business.
Where they differ
- Fortune focuses on the Wisconsin primary miss and prediction markets’ broader accuracy track record, including prior errors in Los Angeles and Kentucky races.
- NPR focuses on a separate story: a CFTC investigation into “mention markets” and Kalshi’s removal of sports-related mention contracts.
- NPR ties the regulatory probe to a specific incident involving Trump’s teleprompter operator allegedly profiting from bets on the president’s word choices.
- Fortune quotes statistician Nate Silver cautioning against treating prediction markets as infallible, a framing angle NPR does not include.
Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are facing renewed scrutiny after both badly mispriced the outcome of Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, and separately, federal regulators have opened an inquiry into so-called “mention markets” that let bettors wager on specific words a public figure will say. Both stories have chipped at the credibility these platforms built during the 2024 election cycle.
What happened in the Wisconsin primary?
Polymarket and Kalshi both gave progressive candidate Francesca Hong roughly a 95% chance of winning the Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor, matching traditional polling. Instead, her rival David Crowley won by less than half a percentage point. Polymarket deleted a since-criticized post on X that had put Hong’s odds at 96%, especially notable given she hadn’t landed endorsements from prominent progressives like Bernie Sanders or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and co-founder Luana Lopes Lara pushed back on criticism, arguing a 95% probability still leaves a one-in-20 chance for the underdog — Lara summed it up as “5% is not 0%.”
Was this the first time prediction markets got an election wrong?
No. Fortune notes two earlier missteps this year, though both left more room for upset than the Wisconsin race did. In June, Kalshi and Polymarket gave reality-TV figure Spencer Pratt about a 75% chance of advancing from Los Angeles’s nonpartisan mayoral primary; he finished third. In May, Kalshi gave Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie roughly the same odds of winning his Republican primary, but he lost to Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein. Statistician Nate Silver has pointed to these episodes as a reminder that prediction markets are forecasting tools that carry real uncertainty, not guaranteed outcomes.
What is a federal “mention market” probe, and why is it happening now?
According to NPR, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has launched a review of “mention markets” — contracts where people bet on whether a specific word will be spoken by a public figure, from President Trump to sports broadcasters. In response, Kalshi has pulled all sports-related mention markets “until further notice,” though it’s still allowing wagers tied to words spoken at political events, on earnings calls, and during television newscasts. Sports betting makes up more than 80% of Kalshi’s weekly trading volume, so removing this category is a meaningful cut to its business.
The scrutiny follows a controversy last month in which Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator was found using Kalshi to profit from bets on which words the president would or wouldn’t say during public appearances. Kalshi said its own surveillance systems flagged the suspicious betting pattern and reported it to federal authorities. One source familiar with the CFTC’s internal discussions told NPR that mention markets are seen as easy to manipulate and unpopular “across the political aisle,” prompting the agency to take a closer look at whether some should be allowed to continue.
How does this fit into prediction markets’ bigger rise?
Polymarket and Kalshi built their reputations on accurately calling every state in the 2024 presidential election, and their profile grew further when they were credited with signaling a Trump advantage late in that race, at a time many traditional polls called it a tossup. That credibility has since pulled them into the media mainstream — CNN named Kalshi its official prediction-markets partner, and Dow Jones has said it will fold Polymarket data into The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and MarketWatch. Most prediction markets operate as “self-certified” swaps, meaning platforms can launch new contracts simply by filing paperwork asserting compliance with federal rules, a structure now under closer examination as regulators weigh whether mention markets fit within it.
What’s still unclear
NPR notes that Kalshi and CFTC spokespeople declined to comment on the investigation, and it isn’t clear whether or when mention markets for sports will return. Polymarket offers mention markets on its overseas platform, which falls outside CFTC jurisdiction, but not on its smaller U.S.-regulated service. It also isn’t clear whether the Wisconsin miss will meaningfully dent public trust in prediction markets or prove to be, as Kalshi’s founders argue, simply the rare outcome that a probabilistic forecast always allows for.
Sources
Featured photo: Veo 3, prompted by P.J. Accetturo via Wikimedia Commons (Public domain)