Coverage spread: 3 sources — 1 left · 2 international
Lean ratings via AllSides / Media Bias-Fact-Check. How this works.
Where they agree
- US officials (Rubio, Bessent) and regional mediators say talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restoring a ceasefire have made real progress, though nothing is finalized.
- The strait remained closed to shipping even as optimism grew, and oil prices fell sharply on the news.
- Iran denies negotiating directly with the US, saying its talks are instead with Oman as mediator.
- Any deal would reportedly involve a route split between Iranian and Omani control, deferred decisions on tolls, and linkage to lifting the US blockade on Iranian ports.
Where they differ
- The Guardian provides the most detail on the actual mechanics of the proposed deal (Iranian entry route, Omani exit route, fees, 60-day negotiating window) sourced to anonymous regional officials.
- BBC focuses heavily on the market impact, citing specific Brent and WTI price drops and consumer fuel price data in the UK and US.
- Al Jazeera’s coverage is split across shorter dispatches, including one on Trump declaring Iran has a ‘last chance’ and a separate feature emphasizing that Big Oil companies (Exxon, Chevron, Shell, BP, Aramco) are posting record profits amid the disruption, a framing not addressed by the other outlets.
- The Guardian alone reports the detail of a cargo vessel being struck by an unidentified projectile off Oman’s coast, and Oman’s own reluctance/resistance to the proposed arrangement over fears of ceding lasting influence to Iran.
What officials are saying
Senior US officials said Tuesday that talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restoring a ceasefire in the US-Iran war have made progress, though no agreement has been finalized. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters at the State Department that “progress has been made” in discussions involving Iran and Oman over letting more ships through the strait, adding “we’re hoping that will happen very shortly.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went further on CNBC, saying there was “a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move toward a more normalized position in this conflict.” Asked whether Iran would be permitted to charge ships for passage, Bessent described the goal as “freedom of movement.”
Their comments followed claims from President Donald Trump on Monday that a breakthrough was close, though Tehran quickly denied it was in direct talks with Washington. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said instead that talks with Oman — a key mediator — on a new mechanism for ships crossing the strait had been “positive.” Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Majed al-Ansari, said Doha, Pakistan and Oman were mediating in close coordination, exchanging draft proposals between Washington and Tehran, and that contacts had reached “very progressive stages,” though he acknowledged no direct US-Iran talks were currently scheduled.
What the emerging deal reportedly looks like
According to anonymous regional officials cited by the Associated Press, the outline under discussion would have ships enter the Gulf via a route controlled by Iran and exit through a route controlled by Oman, with fees charged for security and environmental upkeep. The contentious question of Iran charging tolls on transiting vessels would reportedly be deferred to a 60-day negotiating window, during which Iran’s nuclear program would also be discussed. Any final agreement would be tied to lifting the US blockade on Iranian ports.
The Guardian reported that Oman has faced heavy pressure from the US, European governments and Saudi Arabia to accept a temporary arrangement — ships entering near the Iranian coast and leaving along a jointly controlled southern route by Oman — but that Muscat has resisted, fearing a temporary scheme could become permanent and give Tehran lasting influence over Omani waters. The prior memorandum of understanding, signed in mid-June, collapsed in July after vessels tried crossing near the Omani coast without Iranian approval and Iran attacked them.
The situation on the water and in markets
Despite the diplomatic optimism, the strait remained closed to shipping as of Tuesday, and a cargo vessel was reportedly hit by an unidentified projectile off Oman’s coast near the strait, according to Britain’s maritime security agency UKMTO, which did not name the ship. Oil prices nonetheless fell sharply: Brent crude dropped almost 5% to under $80 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate fell more than 5% to $76, both hitting three-week lows. Before the conflict, the strait carried about one-fifth of the world’s daily oil and liquefied natural gas supply. Analysts cautioned that markets have been burned before by premature optimism, with AJ Bell’s Danni Hewson noting investors are “acutely aware” of how often talks have reached this stage only to falter, and how fragile any lasting agreement could prove.
Consumers have felt the closure’s effects directly. UK petrol prices have climbed back to roughly £1.60 a litre, near levels seen at the war’s start, while US gasoline averages above $4 a gallon and diesel nearly $5.40, per AAA figures.
Who’s benefiting while the war drags on
Al Jazeera highlighted that major oil companies have posted outsized profits during the disruption. ExxonMobil reported second-quarter earnings of $14.5bn, its best in four years; Chevron posted $12bn, its strongest in six years; Shell more than doubled its earnings to nearly $10bn; TotalEnergies’ profits rose 67%; and BP more than doubled its year-earlier profit to $5.73bn. Saudi Aramco’s earnings rose 44% to $32.69bn, aided by its East-West Pipeline reducing reliance on Hormuz. A Kpler analyst noted global benchmark crude averaged $96.68 a barrel in the second half of 2026.
Where things stand
Trump reportedly told Iran it has “one last chance” to reach a deal, while Al Jazeera reported Tehran is in no rush to accept it. Qatar’s al-Ansari said indirect talks continue specifically to avoid further regional escalation, including hostilities that have widened into the Red Sea. As of the reporting, no finalized agreement, timeline, or detailed terms had been publicly confirmed by either Washington or Tehran.
Sources
Featured photo: MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC via Wikimedia Commons (Public domain)